Wednesday, April 28, 2004

That's a Pretty Powerful Group of Deadenders One of the constant refrains from the Bush Administration -- and more constant from its flacks (Rush, The Corner, etc.) is the limited nature of the resistance in Iraq. The patent falsity of this is shown by the fact that if we were actually talking about a small resistance Fallujah be cleaned out long-ago and Najaf's Holy Sights not held hostage. But it is looking bigger all the time, and getting more and more cooordinated. From today's Christian Science Monitor. Far from limited to a small group of "dead-enders" and Saddam "thugs" as Pentagon officials claim, the armed opposition to the US occupation in Iraq has reached the point where some experts say it threatens to become a full-fledged nationalist insurgency. Bolstered by former Iraqi military and security personnel, today's insurgents are at the least conducting increasingly sophisticated coordinated attacks. In addition, they have built networks to recruit fighters, make weapons, and funnel funds from Iraqi businesses and charitable groups, military experts say. Perhaps most important, insurgents are now motivated primarily by nationalism and Islam, rather than by loyalty to Saddam Hussein, they say. US commanders are weighing moving tens of thousands more US troops into Iraq - as well as additional tanks and other armor - in an effort to curb unrest expected to surround the planned June 30 transfer of power to Iraqi authorities. "The insurgency has worsened immeasurably," says Ahmed Hashim, an Iraq expert and professor of strategic studies at the Naval War College in Newport, R.I. For example, "the new insurgents showed a dramatic improvement in small-unit fighting skills" during recent violence in Sunni towns such as Fallujah, he said, testifying before Congress as a private citizen. Coordinated attacks on convoys and troops, such as a devastating ambush in Ramadi this month that killed 12 US Marines, show insurgents in some areas are striking virtually as military units and withdrawing under covering fire, he says. "They have shown an ability to stand and fight, rather than merely to 'shoot and scoot' or 'pray and spray' as in the past." ... "The trends on the security side are almost uniformly bad," says Michael O'Hanlon, a military analyst at the Brookings Institution who has been upbeat on the prospects for postwar Iraq. ... Today, military sources say Sadr's Mahdi Army has 7,000 to 10,000 men. Iran has agents in Najaf and Karbala who are providing arms and training to various Shiite militia, the sources say. Some low-level cooperation is underway between Shiite and Sunni insurgents, says Hashim, and Shiite militiamen from Sadr City have even infiltrated Fallujah to battle coalition forces, he adds. To head off worse violence, experts say the US must urgently add tens of thousands of troops to the 135,000 now in Iraq in order to uproot enemy fighters and better protect Iraqi civilians. Of course, we don't have tens of thousands of troops to pour into Iraq, and nobody seems particularly keen to do so either. So, pending disaster. If you are a religious person, pray for three things -- our troops, Iraqi civilians, and a new Administration in November. If you are not religious, hope for the best. On the other hand, given this month's goings on, expect a spike in Preznit McIllogical's popularity ratings.
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